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As the US cedes global economic primacy, Australia mulls a military buildup and China struggles with crippling pollution. One big issue facing all countries is how to ensure Asian regional stability.
Buying ships and jets won't do it, particularly if trying to match the Chinese.
A more farsighted approach is to use the next 20 years of geopolitical transition to bind the Asian hemisphere into a ubiquitous, universally-beneficial energy delivery system.
This offers everyone a slice of the pie and a stake in stability: the Americans, the Chinese, the Australians, the Southeast Asian nations.
In "Australia 2050, Clean Energy Superpower", DESERTEC-Australia argues for a pan-hemispheric High-Voltage Direct Current power line and natural gas pipeline network stretching from the Great Australian Bight to Beijing and beyond.
Through it could flow everything from Southern Ocean wave energy to Mongolian wind power, all 'load balanced' by natural gas and cross-border hydropower. In short, Asia could have the ultimate multilateral 'smart grid.'
The benefits would be huge: more efficient transport of energy, greater security of energy supply, better price signals for investment, dramatic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The technology is there, the money is there, the brains are there, and the renewable energy is there.
Now, consider 'comparative advantage.'
America has an edge in innovation and risk-tolerant capital investment (i.e. venture capital). Australia has an edge in renewable energy resources. China has an edge in High Voltage Direct Current power lines, and soon Ultra High Voltage Power lines.
Therein lies the solution: use American expertise in risk-tolerant capital to fund renewable energy experimentation throughout Asia, including Australia, with the Chinese providing the multilateral energy 'superhighway' comprised of High Voltage Direct Current power lines and natural gas pipelines.
Once built, the Chinese wouldn't dare shut down the transmission system for political reasons (like the Russians might) because China is an importer of energy. Australia and Southeast Asian wouldn't dare withhold energy supplies, because that would lose them needed revenue. Since everyone would be drinking from the same well, timely maintenance would be assured and paid for in 'common carrier' tariffs.
Downstream backup supplies such as fuel cells, electric vehicle fleets, hydrogen and distributed natural gas emergency stockpiles could offset short-term supply disruptions. These could be further minimised through demand cut agreements with discretionary customers.
With access to energy resources ensured by a multilateral infrastructure, China would have less need to project maritime military power. And if China builds a smaller Navy, Australia needs to build a smaller countermeasure military -- allowing both to focus on butter instead of guns.
A recent US study "A Roadmap for U.S.-China Cooperation on Energy and Climate Change" noted the United States and China had in common large renewable energy resources and aging, inefficient energy transmission infrastructures. The same can be said for Australia. Therefore, the templates and roadmaps are there for cooperation.
DESERTEC-Australia estimates fitting out Australia with a transcontinental High Voltage Direct Current transmission system and a unified national gas pipeline system would cost about A$30 billion, or three per cent of Australian GDP. That's significantly less than Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's proposed $42 billion national broadband system.
DESERTEC-Australia estimates the cost of a pan-Asian HVDC/natural gas pipeline system would cost about US$400 billion, or about two per cent of regional GDP. Coincidentally, UK economist Nicholas Stern has warned that the world needs to make investments of roughly two per cent of GDP per year if the world is to have any hope of avoiding the worst ravages of climate change.
Renewable energy 'load balanced' by natural gas and hydropower, delivered across borders and with investment price signals delivered through carbon pricing could spark a massively positive investment boom in retooling the Asian hemispheric economy. It's a visionary solution that deserves serious consideration.
Stewart Taggart is a director of Acquasol Infrastructure Ltd., a developer of environmentally-friendly power and water solutions building a municipal-scale solar desalination plant in South Australia's Upper Spencer Gulf. Stewart is also founder/administrator of DESERTEC-Australia, DESERTEC-USA and DESERTEC-China. DESERTEC promotes the concept of "Clean Power From Deserts."
Additional Reading
Carbon taxes/Chinese divestment from US
China studying carbon tax ideas - report, Reuters, May 1, 2009
A 'Copper Standard' for the world's currency system? Daily Telegraph, April 16, 2009
Australia/Asia geopolitics
America will not protect us, warns Rudd, Sydney Morning Herald, May 2, 2009
Australia muscling up as America's power wanes, the Age, May 2, 2009
Chinese pollution and its costs
Pollution causing birth defects 'every 30 seconds' in China, ABC News, Feb 1, 2009
Hidden Cost of China's Coal is $250 billion: Survey, Reuters, Oct 27, 2008,
Kevin Rudd's proposed "Asia-Pacific community"
Rudd stands by Asia-Pacific plan, the Age, January 3, 2009
Kevin Rudd to drive Asian union, the Australian, June 5, 2008
Kevin Rudd defends his idea for an Asia Pacific Community, Radio Australia, June 6, 2008
Editor's Note: Editor's Note: This opinion was provided by DESERTEC-Australia, please click here to sign up to their mailing list. This article is under copyright; permission must be sought from DESERTEC-Australia in order to reproduce it.
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