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According to Professor Ross Garnaut, the
global financial downturn should not delay
an emissions trading scheme.
Image: iStockphoto

Lower economic activity as a result of the global financial crisis may have stalled greenhouse emissions and will delay their estimated growth by some two or three years, according to Professor Ross Garnaut.

However, the Federal Government’s climate change adviser says we should still implement an emissions trading scheme (ETS) next year, rather than delay it because of the effects of the downturn.
 
Professor Garnaut was addressing delegates at the GREENHOUSE 2009 climate change conference in Perth.

More than 500 scientists, researchers, government and industry members attended the four-day conference organised by CSIRO, to review the effects of climate change and the latest Australian and international research.

Professor Garnaut, the author of the Federal Government’s Climate Change Review, said the global financial crisis has, in effect, given Australia some breathing space in which to address global warming.

“With colleagues, I have said there may be no overall emissions growth for two or three years through the current recessionary episode,” Professor Garnaut said.

“The most likely course is a return to growth that shifts back the curve of emissions levels over time by two or three years.

“That would mean that global emissions levels expected in our review for 2030 would not be reached until 2032 or 2033.”

He said now is a good time to lock in place international agreement on low emissions technology and that Australia had a part to play.

“There are several good reasons for locking in place the structure for an emissions trading scheme,” he said.

This includes giving affected parties greater certainty on what was being planned and more time to bed down an ETS.

“Time is required to iron out any inevitable imperfections before it is called upon to carry a heavy load of emissions reductions,” he said.

“Good work is being done to put an ETS in place next year. There are advantages in making full use of that work. Making a start in 2010 makes it more likely that Australia will have an effective instrument for reducing emissions at relatively low cost when it is required from 2013.”

He said an earlier introduction would allow permit buyers a fixed price up to the end the end of the Kyoto period in 2012, and agencies and other stakeholders time to become familiar with the compliance and monitoring processes.

“Financial markets would not have to carry a heavy load until they had recovered from the stresses of 2008 and their aftermaths,” he said.

To delay the introduction of an ETS would carry high risks, Professor Garnaut said, and its absence would leave a vacuum.

Another reason he gave is that time is running out for a global agreement.

“Pressing ahead with the ETS will provide a signal to the international community that Australia is following through on the commitments made in Bali (in December 2007),” he said.

Any delay on Australia’s behalf would have global implications according to Prof Garnaut.

“It will be noticed in the US debate about an ETS. It will raise doubts about Australia’s capacity to join a strong mitigation effort.”

Professor Garnaut concluded by saying it is time for strong involvement in the policy process by a broader spectrum of Australians.

“Alas, it has recently been a time when the Australian discussion has been claimed disproportionately by the private interest, the ignorant, the myopic and the excessive.”