Hidden environmental costs make food production more vulnerable than society has estimated and consumers should prepare for continuing rising food prices, a new report has shown.

Lead author Kirsten Larsen, based at the University of Melbourne, says food production will be increasingly challenged by changing climate, dwindling supplies of cheap oil and declining water and soil resources.

“What has become patently clear is that major innovations – well beyond efficiency improvements in existing food production – are needed, and soon, if we are to have good food to feed all Victorians and to meet export demands.”

The report, Secure and Sustainable Food Systems for Victoria, produced by the Victorian Eco-Innovation Laboratory (VEIL), investigated the relationship between food, resources, health and the environment.

“We have major gaps in knowledge about Victoria’s and Australia’s food systems that we must address,” Ms Larsen said.

Ms Larsen said strategies ranging from precision farming to urban food production provide glimpses of future food systems, but Victoria needed to carefully consider all approaches – old and new – to actively plan for and design sustainable and secure food systems.

The report is the first to explore vulnerabilities and opportunities in Victoria’s food systems from production to consumption, paddock to plate.

“There is an urgent need to act. Environmental risks and resource constraints are already undermining our ability to increase food production and are reducing access to healthy and affordable food,” said Ms Larsen.