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If you expect to win tennis matches by getting all your first serves in and never serving double faults, you may be surprised to learn that serving aggressively to put only around 50 to 60 per cent of first serves into play, and occasionally serving double faults, can also be winning strategies.

Tennis Australia president, Geoff Pollard, applied the latest mathematical modelling techniques to the grand slam tennis data during research at Swinburne University.

Recognising that the game is designed with two serves, he found that if players are getting 80 per cent of their first serves in, they are not very often taking advantage of their second serve — and not troubling their opponents enough. Pollard said more aggressive first serves win more matches.

“You should take more risks. Serve harder, or closer to the lines, or put more kick on it,” he said.

“We showed mathematically that you should be getting somewhere between 50 and 60 per cent of first serves in. Above or below that range you are not serving optimally.

“A conservative first serve does not win enough points. However, if you push too hard on your first serve you are relying too much on your weaker second serve.”

Pollard said getting 100 per cent of second serves in is not necessarily good either — because it probably means that you’re not being aggressive enough on your second serve.

It might be better to get 90 per cent of second serves in, at the cost of a few double faults. That way you win more points on your second serve than you would if you got 100 per cent in.

In another project Pollard analysed the best time for players to briefly lift the intensity of play. In a game, it’s better to lift before deuce. In a set it’s better to lift before six-all, to avoid a tie break.

“Typically, it’s better to lift to press home an existing advantage,” he said.

“For example, if you have a 70 per cent chance of holding your serve and only a 30 per cent chance of breaking your opponent, it is often better to lift when serving, not when receiving.

“The chance of winning is actually better if you can lift from 60 to 70 per cent than if you lift from 40 to 50 per cent. Most people would expect the opposite.”

However, if you are behind in a tie break, you need to lift on the return of serve to break back and stay in the set.

Pollard said left-handers typically have a natural advantage when playing right-handers.

In those matches, right-handers often win 60 per cent of service points to both courts.

But left-handers often win only 50 per cent of points to the forehand court and 70 per cent to the backhand court.

Both players average 60 per cent, but the left-hander wins more matches because of the natural ‘lift’ to 70 in the backhand court.

This explains why left-handers win more grand slams than would be expected from their numbers in the competitions, Pollard said.