ScienceAlert Homepage

There are no insurmountable technological, engineering or environmental barriers to Australia sustaining a population of 30 million by 2050, according to a major study by the Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE).

But ATSE sounds a warning bell, saying its findings assume thorough analysis and planning and strong leadership, especially by governments.

Specifically, ATSE’s study findings conclude:

• There are no inherent physical, resource or technological barriers;
• Long-term planning is imperative to ensure timely and orderly provision of needed infrastructure; and
• Leadership from governments is essential in setting clear policy directions.

The two-year ATSE study was commissioned by the Scanlon Foundation, which believes that the future prosperity of Australia, underpinned by population growth, will depend on our ability to maintain social cohesion in a society with even more cultural diversity than we have successfully accommodated historically.

On advice from the Australian Institute for Demographic Research of the Australian National University, the Scanlon Foundation adopted, as a working hypothesis, a future population for Australia of 30 million people by 2050. In shorthand this is referred to as “30/50”.

The current ATSE study reaches conclusions which are consistent with a 2000 ATSE Study that found predictions of environmental disaster arising from population growth were ill-founded.

See ATSE, Population Futures October 2000

ATSE notes that Australia has suffered significant environmental damage in the past and might again in the future if land, water and air are not better managed. But it recognises that increases in many environmental impacts are not necessarily related to population size but arise from how we plan, manage and develop towns and cities, regions, catchments and natural resources.

The ATSE study considered three systemic issues and five specific topics involved in meeting 30/50.

The systemic issues were:

• The potential impacts of climate change;
• The investment required in infrastructure and the associated economic capacity, resulting from population growth and underlying economic trends; and
• The planning issues involved in integrating the complex and interlocking elements.

The five specific topics were water, energy, transport, waste management and social infrastructure.