Australia faces a hot and dry
future as a result of high levels
greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere.
(Photo from CSIRO)
The latest and most detailed climate change projections have shown that Australia will face an inevitable temperature rise, whilst suffering further decreases in rainfall and an increase in extreme weather events.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and CSIRO released the report Climate Change in Australia on 2 October in Sydney at Greenhouse 2007.
The report predicts that regardless of whether or not greenhouse gas emissions are reduced temperatures in Australia will rise by about 1 degree Celsius by 2030 and rainfall will decline by up to 5 per cent.
“Some climate change in Australia is certainly inevitable, so we're going to have to adapt,” said CSIRO's Dr Penny Whetton, an author of the report.
Depending on how quickly and effectively greenhouse gas emissions were reduced the temperature could increase 5 degrees Celsius by 2070 and there could be a 30 per cent reduction in annual rainfall, she said.
Dr Whetton said that an increase of even two or three degrees Celsius would pose a severe risk to the Great Barrier Reef.
According to the report, the best case scenario (in the presence of low greenhouse gas emissions) is an increase of between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius by 2070, with a 20 per cent decrease in rainfall.
The report states that Australia's temperature has climbed 0.9 degrees Celsius since 1950 and there has been an increase in hot nights and drought.
Another of the report's authors, BoM's Dr Scott Power, said that the oceans surrounding Australia had warmed and the sea levels had risen.
The report blames these effects of climate change on greenhouse gas emissions produced by humans.
"The message is that global warming is real, humans are very likely to be causing it and that it is very likely that there will be changes in the global climate system in the centuries to come larger than those seen in the recent past," states the report.
The report is based on conclusions of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released earlier this year, however it incorporates additional sophisticated models and is specific to the Australian climate.
Climate change in Australia will be an important tool to help government, business and communities plan ahead, said CSIRO.
Australia needed not only to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions but also to adapt to the inevitable effects of climate change, according to Dr Power.
The report also shows that by 2070 there will be many more days that reach over 35 degrees Celsius and up to 80 per cent more months of drought. Fires may increase, there will be less frost and sea levels will continue to rise in the coming decades.
To see the climate change projections for your area go to Climate Change in Australia.
To listen to an interview with Dr Penny Whetton go to CSIRO.
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