A new statistical formula to predict the likelihood of women with osteoporosis fracturing bones has been found by a University of Melbourne research team.

Led by Dr Margaret Henry, a statistician based at the University of Melbourne’s Department of Clinical and Biomedical Sciences at Barwon Health in Geelong, the researchers developed a formula that predicts the risk of osteoporotic fracture in women with 75 per cent accuracy.

“This formula will help physicians tailor treatment plans for women who have different levels of bone mineral density throughout their bodies,” says Dr Henry.

“By using the formula, they will be able to offer advice that may prevent injuries to the most fragile bones of at-risk women.”

Osteoporosis is a disease of the bones in which the bone mineral density (BMD) is reduced, bone micro-architecture is disrupted, and the amount and variety of some proteins in bone is changed.

“Because certain hormones directly affect bone density, post-menopausal women are most affected by the condition,” says Dr Henry.

“Approximately 45 per cent of women have different levels of bone mineral density between their hip and their spine, leading to uncertainty as to how physicians should assess their future fracture risk. Our formula provides physicians with evidence-based information to develop prevention and treatment strategies.”

The equation developed by Dr Henry and colleagues takes into account a range of risk factors. A patient’s likelihood of falling, low bone mass, excess or low body weight and additional factors are combined into a single formula that can indicate to a physician how serious a woman’s fracture risk may be. Treatment strategies may then be targeted on the basis of a woman’s predicted outcome.

“The ability to predict fracture risk, based on simple clinical measurements, will assist in targeting treatment for people at highest risk, thus helping reduce the burden of this disease,” says Dr Henry.

Her team’s findings are reported in the October 2006 edition of Radiology, the journal of the Radiological Society of North America.