The report has shown that agriculture in
South Asia may be particularly vulnerable
to he adverse effects of climate change.
Image: iStockphoto

The unimpeded growth of greenhouse gas emissions is raising the earth’s temperature. The consequences include melting glaciers, more precipitation, more and more extreme weather events, and shifting seasons. The accelerating pace of climate change, combined with global population and income growth, threatens food security everywhere.

Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperatures eventually reduce yields of desirable crops while encouraging weed and pest proliferation. Changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and long-run production declines. Although there will be gains in some crops in some regions of the world, the overall impacts of climate change on agriculture are expected to be negative, threatening global food security.

Populations in the developing world, which are already vulnerable and food insecure, are likely to be the most seriously affected. In 2005, nearly half of the economically active population in developing countries—2.5 billion people—relied on agriculture for its livelihood. Today, 75 percent of the world’s poor live in rural areas.

This Food Policy Report presents research results that quantify the climate-change impacts mentioned above, assesses the consequences for food security, and estimates the investments that would offset the negative consequences for human well-being.

This analysis brings together, for the first time, detailed modeling of crop growth under climate change with insights from an extremely detailed global agriculture model, using two climate scenarios to simulate future climate. The results of the analysis suggest that agriculture and human well-being will be negatively affected by climate change:

• In developing countries, climate change will cause yield declines for the most important crops. South Asia will be particularly hard hit.


• Climate change will have varying effects on irrigated yields across regions, but irrigated yields for all crops in South Asia will experience large declines.


• Climate change will result in additional price increases for the most important agricultural crops–rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans. Higher feed prices will result in higher meat prices. As a result, climate change will reduce the growth in meat consumption slightly and cause a more substantial fall in cereals consumption.


• Calorie availability in 2050 will not only be lower than in the no–climate-change scenario—it will actually decline relative to 2000 levels throughout the developing world.


• By 2050, the decline in calorie availability will increase child malnutrition by 20 percent relative to a world with no climate change. Climate change will eliminate much of the improvement in child malnourishment levels that would occur with no climate change.


• Thus, aggressive agricultural productivity investments of US$7.1–7.3 billion are needed to raise calorie consumption enough to offset the negative impacts of climate change on the health and well-being of children. 

Recommendations
The results of this analysis suggest the following policy and program recommendations.

1. Design and implement good overall development policies and programs. Given the current uncertainty about location-specific effects of climate change, good development policies and programs are also the best climate-change adaptation investments. A pro-growth, pro-poor development agenda that supports  agricultural sustainability also contributes to food security and climate-change adaptation in the developing world. Adaptation to climate change is easier when individuals have more resources and operate in an economic environment that is flexible and responsive.

2. Increase investments in agricultural productivity. Even without climate change, greater investments in agricultural science and technology are needed to meet the demands of a world population expected to reach 9 billion by 2050. Many of these people will live in the developing world, have higher incomes, and desire a more diverse diet. Agricultural science- and technology-based solutions are essential to meet those demands.

Climate change places new and more challenging demands on agricultural productivity. Crop and livestock productivity-enhancing research, including biotechnology, will be essential to help overcome stresses due to climate change. Crops and livestock are needed that are doing reasonably well in a range of production environments rather than extremely well in a narrow set of climate conditions. Research on dietary changes in food animals and changes in  irrigation-management practices is needed to reduce methane emissions. One of the key lessons of the Green Revolution is that improved agricultural  productivity, even if not targeted to the poorest of the poor, can be a powerful mechanism for alleviating poverty indirectly by creating jobs and lowering food prices. Productivity enhancements that increase farmers’ resilience in the face of climate-change pressures will likely have similar poverty-reducing effects.

Rural infrastructure is essential if farmers are to take advantage of improved crop varieties and management techniques. Higher yields and more cropped area require maintaining and increasing the density of rural road networks to increase access to markets and reduce transaction costs. Investments in irrigation infrastructure are also needed, especially to improve the efficiency of water use, but care must be taken to avoid investments in places where water availability is likely to decline.

3. Reinvigorate national research and extension programs. Investment in laboratory scientists and the infrastructure they require is needed. Partnerships with other national systems and international centers are part of the solution. Collaboration with local farmers, input suppliers, traders, and consumer groups is also essential for effective development and dissemination of locally appropriate, cost-effective techniques and cultivars to help revitalize communications among farmers, scientists, and other stakeholders to meet the challenges of climate change.

Within countries, extension programs can play a key role in information sharing by transferring technology, facilitating interaction, building capacity among farmers, and encouraging farmers to form their own networks. Extension services that specifically address climate-change adaptation include disseminating local cultivars of drought-resistant crop varieties, teaching improved management systems, and gathering information to facilitate national research work. Farmer organizations can be an effective information-sharing mechanism and have the potential to provide cost-effective links between government efforts and farmer activities.

4. Improve global data collection, dissemination, and analysis. Climate change will have dramatic consequences for agriculture. However, substantial uncertainty remains about where the effects will be greatest. These uncertainties make it challenging to move forward on policies to combat the effects of climate change. Global efforts to collect and disseminate data on the spatial nature of agriculture need to be strengthened. Regular, repeated observations of the surface of the earth via remote sensing are critical. Funding for national statistical programs should be increased so that they can fulfill the task of monitoring global change. Understanding agriculture–climate interactions well enough to support adaptation and mitigation activities based on land use requires major improvements in data collection, dissemination, and analysis.

5. Make agricultural adaptation a key agenda point within the international climate negotiation process. International climate negotiations provide a window of opportunity for governments and civil-society organizations to advance proposals for practical actions on adaptation in agriculture.

6. Recognize that enhanced food security and climate-change adaptation go hand in hand. Climate change will pose huge challenges to food security efforts. Hence, any activity that supports agricultural adaptation also enhances food security. Conversely, anything that results in increased food security will provide the poor, especially the rural poor, with the resources that will help them adapt to climate change.

7. Support community-based adaptation strategies. Crop and livestock productivity, market access, and the effects of climate all are extremely
location specific. International development agencies and national governments should work to ensure that technical, financial, and capacity-building support reaches local communities. They should also encourage community participation in national adaptation planning processes. Community-based adaptation strategies can help rural communities strengthen their capacity to cope with disasters, improve their land-management skills, and diversify their  livelihoods. While national adaptation policies and strategies are important, the implementation of these strategies at the local level will be the ultimate test of the effectiveness of adaptation.

8. Increase funding for adaptation programs by at least an additional $7 billion per year. At least $7 billion per year in additional funding is required to finance the research, rural infrastructure, and irrigation investments needed to offset the negative effects of climate change on human well-being. The mix of investments differs by region: Sub-Saharan Africa requires the greatest overall investment and a greater share of investments in roads, Latin America in agricultural research, and Asia in irrigation efficiency.

The report was written by G.C. Nelson, M.w. Rosegrant, J. Koo, R. Richardson, T. Sulser, T. Zhu, C. Ringler, S. Msangi, A. Palazzo, M. Batka, M. Magalhaes, R. Valmonte-Santos, M. Ewing, D. Lee.