After two years of research, discussion and debate, CSIRO's Energy Futures Forum (EFF) has released its final report - 'The Heat is On: The Future of Energy in Australia'.

The EFF was set upd in 2004 to involve energy suppliers, generators, distributors, major energy end-users, financiers, government and community representatives in developing scenarios for the future of energy in Australia to 2050.

Key findings include:

On the basis of risk assessment, it is likely that the global benefits of avoiding climate change will outweigh the global costs of mitigation (this finding echoes the recently released Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change). However, Australia's energy intensive and trade exposed industries, such as aluminium and iron and steel, and the regional areas they are based in may be disproportionately impacted.

It is projected that both the Australian and World economies will continue to grow when carrying out greenhouse gas mitigation. Furthermore, electricity can be expected to remain affordable for households. While retail electricity prices will increase under carbon pricing by between 7 and 20 per cent by 2050, those increases will be below the change in real income per capita in Australia which is expected to rise by over 100 per cent by 2050.

The greater the participation of countries world wide in greenhouse gas mitigation the lower the cost of mitigation for Australia.

The cost of addressing climate change is lowest for Australia when it can choose from all available low emission technologies, in partnership with improvements in energy efficiency improvements and demand management. All low emission technologies have varying degrees of advantages and disadvantages from economic, social or environmental perspectives.

Uncertainty regarding climate change policy in Australia increases investment risk, particularly in electricity generation. If the risks remain too high for too long then it could lead to higher electricity costs. While the EFF's economic modelling focuses on carbon prices and emission trading, there are a wide variety of policies which could be brought to bear in Australia at different times.

There are several key issues unresolved by the work of the EFF and on which further work would be valuable. One of these is the timing and nature of the mix of actions that will drive the shift towards a lower carbon energy future.

The findings are based on discussion of a wide range of research that was applied to the EFF's postulated scenarios. This included economic modelling, risk-assessment analysis of climate change, and social mapping to gauge potential views of the public towards various energy options.

"As with any futures exercise the Report does not resolve the uncertainties we in the research community, and other energy sector stakeholders, face," says Dr John Wright, Director of the CSIRO's Energy Transformed Flagship.

"However, it clearly articulates the key technological, social and environmental challenges that CSIRO, in partnership with our stationary energy and transport stakeholders, will seek to address on behalf of the Australian